Outer Banks November Nor’Easter Recap
It’s unclear what name will be used to “coin” last week’s storm that wreaked havoc on the Outer Banks as it lives on in the minds of those effected; is it the “November nor’easter,” “Veteran’s Day nor’easter,” “Friday the 13th nor’easter,” “Nor’Ida”?
November nor’easter seems to be the most widely used for now, so we’ll stick with that. What is clear, however, is that the storm (really two weather systems; a high to the north and a low to the south – remnants of tropical storm Ida) was the worst the area has seen in a few years with major damage that will require significant time, energy, and monetary funds to repair. The damage is widespread from Hatters to Corolla and affects public and private property.
The storm arrived on the OBX on Wednesday afternoon and didn’t release its grip on the area until Saturday evening. The long duration of the storm is one of the main reasons for the severe impact. Residents and weather forecasters have compared this storm to Hurricane Isabel in 2003. In the end, the current storm surge during high tides was approximately a foot below Isabel’s storm surge; however, a significant difference between the storms is the duration.
Hurricanes move quickly while nor’easters, and this storm in particular, tend to stall and barrage the Outer Banks for days rather than hours. Hurricanes can be violent, but they are generally short-lived; nor’easters tend to create an ideal environment for increased damage from extended periods of high winds, high surf, high storm surge, and standing water/flooding.
Strong winds blew consistently for almost four days out of the northeast driving large surf to the beach, eventually overtaking the beach and dune lines. Houses sitting precariously along the dune line faced imminent danger from the crashing surf. Add to the dangerous surf and overwash significant rain fall, and flooding, especially along the beach, becomes one of the main forces underlying damage to roadways and residences.
As of now, a week after the start of the storm and four days removed from the return of the sun, the damage assessments are ongoing and repairs are underway. Massive amounts of sand need to be removed; the area resembles the northeast after a major snowfall, but replace snow drifts with sand drifts. Debris needs to be removed from streets, beaches, and the ocean. Select roadways need significant repair; the main roadway casualty being Rt. 12 at the top of Hatters.
Rt. 12 at the top of Hatteras is a well known section of road for a few reasons; Rt. 12 is a nationally recognized scenic byway, this section is well-known in the surf culture for great OBX surf, the house from Nights in Rodanthe is precariously perched in the beach here, and now it is gaining notoriety for the extensive damage from the November nor’easter.
From last Friday through today, the road has been shut down due to significant damage, and keep in mind this is the only road out of Hatteras. On Monday, a temporary path was created for four-wheel drive vehicles, but it was a crude solution to a more significant problem. As of today, one lane has reopened while crews continue to work tirelessly to repair the dune line and roadway. As a result of the damage, Hatteras was declared a State of Emergency late last week, and Governor Purdue is expected to seek Federal aid for the repairs.
In addition to the focus on the road in this area, a significant amount of attention is focused on “Serendipity,” the house from Nights in Rodanthe. The house has been treacherously close to the waves for quite a while, but this storm brought a renewed threat to the already empty house. The devastating destruction caused by Mother Nature is clear from the disappearing dunes and mangled road. It doesn’t require a large stretch of imagination to comprehend the damage “Serendipity” is facing. As of today, Dare County has determined that “Serendipity” must be moved or removed from its precarious location. It could be the end of an icon that has stood as an OBX treasure since 1988 when it was erected by a local builder.
Outer Banks November Nor’Easter Update – Day 2 (or is it day 3?)
(Shot Thursday Afternoon)
The November nor’easter is sticking around on the Outer Banks. The storm (really two systems; a high and a low pressure systems, the low being the real “nor’easter” and the remnants of Ida.) set in late Wednesday and is very reluctant to release its grip on the OBX.
The wind and rough surf have been relentless. Due to the large waves and higher tides than normal, the beach no longer serves as a boundary for the ocean; water and debris have flowed onto the streets in many areas. The damage is still being assessed and cleanup crews are diligently working to clear sand and debris from roadways, but flooded areas are slowing the process. Traffic is restricted to flooded areas. However, based on debris and some first responders able to brave the conditions, there are some severe damages in need of attention.
As of Friday morning the tide swept back into the area, and the next high tide is scheduled for about 4 pm. The high tide yesterday evening were less than a foot below hurricane Isabel in 2003. A Coastal Flood Warning and a High Surf Advisory are still in effect for the area. There is also a high threat of rip currents through Friday evening. A strong low pressure near Cape Hatteras will slowly drift east while still impacting the region through Saturday.
A State of Emergency has been issued for all of Hatteras Island, and NC Highway 12 is closed at the Oregon Inlet Bridge with no passage available through the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge to the Rodanthe area. At this time, it is not known when Highway 12 to Hatteras Island will reopen. North Carolina DOT is on-scene working to clear sand and water from the roadway.
There are no reports of power outages, but Dare County Schools are closed.
(Shot Friday Morning)
Outer Banks November Nor’Easter Update
The “November Nor’easter” has arrived and is hanging over the Outer Banks area. The highest winds and the worst tides will occur today as the remnants of Ida glide by just south of Hatteras.
A coastal flood warning is in effect until 8:00am Saturday, November 14. A coastal flood warning means flooding is occurring or imminent.
A strong low pressure system will move slowly along the coast today and produce strong northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph. The strong winds and building seas could result in overwash and coastal flooding.
The low pressure will slowly move along the southeast NC coast through this afternoon as an upper level trough moves in from the northwest. Gusty winds will continue through Friday. The low will move to a position just off the Outer Banks early Friday then slowly drift further offshore Friday night. This slow movement will compound the coastal flooding impacts and keep seas in the double digits entering into the weekend, especially over the Northern Outer Banks.
Rough surf conditions are expected along with a high threat of rip currents in ocean waters.
Seas through this afternoon are expected around 10-15 feet, highest along northern waters. The long northeast fetch through Friday afternoon will drive high seas towards the northern OBX. Breakers could build as high as 8 to 10 feet generating high surf and dangerous rip currents. By the weekend, high pressure builds over the area and seas will begin to subside.
Nights in Rodanthe
The rough seas pose a serious threat to houses located on the oceanfront. A great example of the potential for property damage from a coastal storm is the very well-known house from Nights in Rodanthe.
The Nights in Rodanthe house sits directly on the beach at the northern tip of Hatteras Island. It is precariously perched in the pounding surf, and its days seem numbered. It’s tragic to see property damaged, especially a gorgeous oceanfront home, but nature is a force much greater than our construction materials.
It’s sort of like watching a car accident (albeit in very slow motion), but you can view real time video of the famous house with this webcam; as of now, the webcam is faced directly at the house. The southern Outer Banks is doing pretty well in comparison to the northern Outer Banks in this system, so this could be good news for the famed house. Perhaps this is not the storm that takes it down, but odds are nature will claim it at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Relatively good news for southern Outer Banks: The low (remnants of Ida) has gotten close enough to the southern part of the Outer Banks to allow the pressure gradient (difference in pressure) to relax greatly; so the wind hasn’t been too bad along the southern Outer Banks. However, the northern Outer Banks is experiencing more severe weather. While Hatteras has been experiencing 25 mph wind gusts, Duck to Corolla has been experiencing 50 mph gusts. The pressure gradient has a huge effect; the greatest pressure gradient leads to the highest winds, hence the biggest waves, and the biggest problems with flooding, overwash, and coastal property damage.
In addition to the pressure gradient, high tides play a significant role in severity. This storm system will extend through four high tide periods.
High tides for Oregon Inlet in this period include:
Thursday 11/12 – 3:40am
Thursday 11/12 – 3:53pm
Friday 11/13 – 4:32am
Friday 11/13 – 4:51pm
Nor’Easter Headed to the Outer Banks
Forecast
The set up Wednesday through Friday is somewhat grim. The perfect ingredients for a strong nor’easter are forming along the OBX coast.
A strong high pressure system to the north of the area is pumping in strong winds. Mix in the remnants of Ida stalling out east of the Georgia coast and wind is pumping in from the north and the south. It’s the perfect set up for a rather large, long nor’easter for the local area. Winds are expected to reach speeds of 40-50 mph.
This would be less of an issue if it lasted 10 or 12 hours; it would most likely only generate some minor tidal flooding and rain. But these systems are creating a much different scenario. Forecasts have the pattern stalling out, bringing terrible conditions for 72 hours, leading to more significant coastal flooding, beach erosion and possibly causing some homes perched too close to the ocean to collapse.
Most coastal flooding will occur during high tide cycles and get increasingly worse Wednesday through Friday.
Video Updates
- Weather Channel
- Local Virginia Beach news – Wavy 10
What is a nor’easter?
A “nor’easter” is an intense low pressure area that forms in the winter along the east coast of the Unites States, producing strong northeasterly winds and sometimes heavy snowfall and rainfall. This is a favored region for winter storm formation, where the warm ocean water and airmass along the coast meets cold air pouring down out of Canada.
These storms often travel up along the coast, eventually affecting the entire eastern seaboard. Persistent strong winds with these storms can cause beach erosion and damage to houses along the coast from large waves and high water levels that result from the ocean water being piled up against the coast by the wind. The nor’easter is usually followed by unusually cold weather as the cold high pressure area that helped create the strong winds moves into the region.
Interesting facts:
THE PERFECT STORM – The movie “Perfect Storm” was based upon the true story of a swordfishing boat, the Andrea Gail, that was caught in an intense nor’easter in October 1991.
Tropical Storm Danny Passes Close to the Outer Banks, Brings Fun Surf
Tropical Storm Danny was almost a non-event on the Outer Banks. The storm drew attention throughout the week because it’s projected path brought it precariously close to the delicate strip of barrier islands. Luckily, Danny had some bark but lacked the bite.
The storm passed the Outer Banks on Friday evening. Rains and winds picked up, but most of the passage was cloaked in darkness and missed by the slumbering population of residents and vacationers. As Saturday arrived, the gorgeous Carolina skies brightened and the beaches filled up for a picture-perfect late August day on the Outer Banks.
Unfortunately, dangerous rip currents kept swimmers out of the water, but surfers were out in force. From Hatteras through Corolla, surfers hunted for the right spot that would offer the best waves. The surf was about 8 feet high and semi-clean, but closing out pretty quickly in most spots. Not the perfect OBX surf day, but you really can’t beat 80 degree air, 70 degree water, and head high waves…even if they are closing out.
A new storm is developing in the tropics, but at this time it doesn’t seem to be a threat to the Outer Banks.
Invest 94 Computer Models
Tropical Storm Danny Brings the Outer Banks a Storm Alert and Surf
As of Friday morning, Topical Storm Danny is barely a tropical storm as winds drop, however, the Outer Banks is still expecting rain, winds, increased surf and rip currents. Now barely a tropical storm, Danny’s maximum sustained winds fell to 40 miles per hour. There is potential for some strengthening over next 12 hours, however Danny is currently poorly organized and struggling through wind shear, so it shouldn’t strengthen significantly.
On Thursday, The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for the Outer Banks through Saturday, with windy and rainy conditions possible from Tropical Storm Danny. The watch, issued at 5 p.m. Thursday, covers the Outer Banks from Cape Lookout to Duck in Dare County and the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds. The watch indicates that tropical storm conditions, with winds in excess of 39 mph, are possible through Saturday.
Most tracking models keep the heart of the storm away from the U.S. East Coast, and the Outer Banks. Danny is about 350 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It is forecasted to move northwest at 10 mph and then turn north and northeast while gaining forward speed.
On this course, Danny should pass near the Outer Banks overnight, approach the New England coast late Saturday and move over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Sunday.
Increased swell is starting to show on the Outer Banks, and hopefully conditions will cooperate to create some great OBX surf. As of this morning, the weather was ideal with air temperatures approaching 80 degrees and water temperatures in the mid 70’s. The waves are starting to line up, but not entirely clean and still in the waist to chest range. It is a great paddleboard and longboard day though.
Tropical Storm Danny Forecast
Outer Banks Surf Forecast
Tropical Storm Danny On Course to Breeze by Outer Banks
Tropical Storm Danny is moving westward towards the Outer Banks, but the current forecasts have it turning north and heading up the East Coast prior to making landfall.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS…LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS DANNY MOVES BY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN EAST OF THE REGION…HOWEVER A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD GREATLY INCREASE THE IMPACTS.
The Outer Banks seems secure for now, possibly some wind and rain, but no major impact; however, as the NOAA report indicates a small shift in course could change the impact significantly. Danny needs continued monitoring.
Currently, the OBX surf is predicted to increase over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Danny…More Outer Banks Surf?!
The 2009 Hurricane Season made a late debut in the Atlantic. The first named hurricane didn’t move up the East Coast until the middle of August, but it seems a late start doesn’t necessarily correlate to lower levels of activity.
Hurricane Bill pushed past the Outer Banks last weekend and left some great OBX surf in it’s wake. Now Tropical Storm Danny is forming in the Atlantic hurricane basin and threatening a close call for the Outer Banks by Saturday.
Tropical Storm Danny formed in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas on Wednesday and set a course that could take it near North Carolina’s Outer Banks and the northeastern U.S. states as a hurricane by the weekend. Danny is expected to gather strength over the Atlantic and could be a Category 1 hurricane by the weekend.
It is too early to forecast a precise path, but the current forecasts call for Danny to stay east of the Outer Banks. However, forecasters say the average error in their forecast three days in advance is about 200 miles.
Most computer models have the storm staying well off the U.S. East Coast, but one forecast shows it passing very close to the Outer Banks and heading up the coast.
Hopefully Danny follows a similar path to Bill and sends great surf but spares any potential damage. The storm’s progress will need to be monitored over the next few days.
The silver lining is that the Outer Banks will get some increased swell over the next few days. Hopefully the conditions line up for some great surf!
Tropical Storm Danny Forecast
Tropical Storm Danny Computer Models
Outer Banks Surf Forecast
Hurricane Bill Sends Great Waves to the Outer Banks
After a slow start the 2009 Hurricane Season, Hurricane Bill, the first named hurricane of the year, passed by the Outer Banks on Saturday and sent the OBX some major swell.
Waves started to pickup Friday.
By Saturday the surf was mostly too messy and too large for much surfing, and definitely no swimming as the current was very strong and rip currents were prevalent. Saturday started out nice, but fog set in early and the seas grew rough as the day wore on.
By Sunday, Bill was passed, the sun was starting to shine and the swell left in Bill’s wake created ideal OBX waves.
Monday is even seeing some great leftoevers.
Waves from Hurricane Bill Starting to Arrive on the Outer Banks
Surf is up on the Outer Banks. Swell from Hurricane Bill is starting to arrive this morning, and the intensity of the surf will increase through Sunday when it is forecasted to peak somewhere in the neighborhood of 16 foot waves!
This morning the waves are about shoulder high and pretty consistent; some beautiful lines are forming on the OBX. Air temps will be in the 90’s over the next few days, and water temps in the low 70’s. The currents are already gaining strength. Please use caution in the water, and review rip current preparedness.
Hurricane Bill is becoming somewhat disorganized, but still a major hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 115mph making it a Category 3 storm. Bill is moving northwest at about 17 mph and is expected to move gradually to a north-northwest path later Friday. Bill’s center is currently about 425 miles south of Bermuda and about 865 southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and the center is expected to pass between Bermuda and the Outer Banks Saturday.
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