Outer Banks Real Estate Update: The “Seaside Report” – 2.14.12

Posted on February 14, 2012

The Seaside Report

The main economic driver on the Outer Banks is real estate. Yet, the OBX does not have an in-depth report analyzing the full spectrum of real estate on the Outer Banks – residential & commercial sales, distressed properties (foreclosures & bank-owned), and current vacation rental trends.

To meet this need for a detailed analysis of the current Outer Banks real estate market, including the often ignored but incredibly important vacation rental market, we have created the monthly “Seaside Report.”

We have combined the forces of both sides of our business – Outer Banks real estate sales with Coldwell Banker Seaside Realty & OBX vacation rentals with Seaside Vacations – to bring you the first report to offer a comprehensive view of the OBX real estate market – real estate sales & vacation rentals.

Please keep in mind that there is a lag time between “real time” and data collection/reporting. As a result, the information will be as close to “real time” as possible, but the data will be based in the past by a couple weeks at least. I will indicate the corresponding date/timeliness for each section of data.

As always, we appreciate your input, and we encourage you to leave your comments below. We are happy to address any questions you may have, and we are always interested in suggestions for improvement.

Outer Banks Real Estate Sales
(Data Source: OBAR)

January 2012 OBX MLS Data:

2012 is off to a great start for Outer Banks real estate. January is typically a slow period for real estate, but the OBX market has been anything but slow in January 2012.

The total number of sales in January was up 17% over January 2011.
Under Contracts were up by 38% from January 2011.
January sales ran the gamut from $20k (land) to $1.6 million (KDH oceanfront).

YTD Sales Residential

Up 13% (94 units vs 83 units)
Land – Up 13% (17 units vs 15 units)
Commercial – up 100% (2 units vs 1 unit)

YTD Under Contract

Residential – Up 32% (144 units vs 109 units)
Land – Up 43% (33 units vs 23 units)
Commercial – Up 500% (6 units vs 1 unit)

Distressed Sales: (Distressed = Bank Owned and Short Sales)
Of the 347 new listings in January, 22 were potential short sales & 42 were bank owned. Sold distressed sales data for the month:

	Total Sold	Bank Owned	Short Sale	% Distressed
January	113	20	16	32%

4th Quarter 2011 OBX MLS Data

Summary – Overall, 2011 ended on a flat note with total sales down by approximately 1% and under contract listings down by 1%. However, there has been a notable decline in the median sale price of single family homes and condos. When comparing the yearly median sale prices there has been a 6 % decline in the price for single family homes and a 10% decline in the price for condominiums. Additionally, when looking at the 5 year trend in median sales prices there has been a 24% decline in single family home prices and a 41% decline in condominiums.

Median Sales Price
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Single Family Homes	$416,833	$383,599	$352,607	$319,500	$334,795	$316,269
Percent Change	-10%	-8%	-8%	-9%	5%	-6%
Condos	$335,642	$278,291	$325,260	$278,252	$218,031	$195,968
Percent Change	8%	-17%	17%	-22%	-22%	-10%

2011 Sales End-of-Year Breakdown

Residential: Down 3% (1315 units vs. 1374 units)
Land: Up 15% (323 units vs. 282 units)
Commercial: Up 92% (25 units vs. 13 units)

Year-End Sale Price Range: The best selling residential properties fell into the $200K to $299K range.

Price Range	$0 – 99K	$100 – 199K	$200 – 299K	$300 – 399K	$400 – 499K	$500 – 599K	$600 – 699K	$800 – 999K	> $1M
Units Sold	81	302	328	219	117	88	88	49	55
Average Days on Market	168	191	208	267	270	264	260	302	308

Inventory: The majority of the current active residential listings fall in the following price ranges:

Price Range	Number of Listings	Price Range	Number of Listings
$1 – $99,999K	73	$600K – $699K	109
$100K – $199K	230	$700K – $799K	51
$200 – $299K	330	$800K – $899K	58
$300K – $399K	324	$900K – $999K	38
$400K – $499K	217	> $1M	121
$500K – $599K	173

Distressed Property (Residential): Distressed = Bank Owned and Short Sales

Distressed property currently makes up 14% of the active inventory in the MLS and the sale of distressed property accounts for 31% of all residential property sales. Overall, the sale of properties listed as short sales rose 27% and the sale of bank owned properties declined 22%; however, total distressed property sales were down by 8% from 2010.

Seaside Report: Distressed Property Market Overview - Q4 2011

	Average	Median	Days On Market
Q4 11	$290,550	$205,000	225
Q3 11	$306,648	$239,950	231
% Change	-5.25%	-14.57%	-2.60%

Market Highlights – Sold Properties

Single Family Homes, January 1 – December 31, 2011

Duck continues to have the lowest percentage of distressed property sales, ending the year with a total of 22%
Hatteras Island has the largest percentage of distressed property sales with 55% of all sold single family homes being either bank owned or short sales
Although the Outer Banks had a slight decrease in single family homes sold for 2011 (1159 vs. 1193) the amount of sales over $1 million dollars increased. There were 46 homes sold for over $1 million this year compared with 39 last year. Of the 46 sold, 9 homes sold for over $2 Million (compared to 4 in 2010)
Distressed sales accounted for 37% of all residential (single family & condos) sales in 2011, which was the same as the previous year.

Outer Banks Vacation Rental Market
(Data Source: NAVIS GeoAnalytics)

Average Booking Window
Legend: 2011; 2012

This graph demonstrates the average number of days between booking and check-in date. This graph is summarized by month of booking, rather than month of stay.

For example, the reservations made at this time of year are about 170 days in advance of their check-in date. The takeaway message is that guests should book early for summer months in order to reserve the most desirable homes and weeks – about 170 days in advance at this time of year.

Seaside Report: Average Booking Window - January 2012

Seaside Report: Average Booking Window - YoY Variance - January 2012

Average Length of Stay
Legend: 2011; 2012

The Length of Stay graph illustrates the average number of days between check-in date and check-out date of reservations, summarized by check-in month.

As would be expected for the Outer Banks, the average stay is seven days + for the summer months and varies in the shoulder season. A strong takeaway here is that full weeks are a must for the summer months, but Spring and Fall offer great opportunities for shorter stays and discounted rates, while maintaining the great benefits of gorgeous weather, empty beaches, and ample attractions and activities.

Seaside Report: Average Length of Stay - January 2012

Seaside Report: Average Length of Stay - YoY Variance - January 2012

Average Stay Value
Legend: 2011; 2012

The Stay Value graph illustrates the average revenue actualized or projected for reservations, summarized by check-in month.

The clear message with this graph is that demand is high and supply is low during the summer months, and as a result, prices are driven higher during the summer months. As mentioned above, Spring and Fall offer great opportunities for shorter stays and discounted rates, while maintaining the great benefits of gorgeous weather, empty beaches, and ample attractions and activities.

Seaside Report: Average Stay Value - January 2012

Seaside Report: Average Stay Value - YoY Variance - January 2011

Bookings
Legend: 2011; 2012

The Bookings graph illustrates the number of reservations actualized or on the books, summarized by check-in month. This graph gives a good view of the “strength” of the reservations over the previous year. Reservations are up, which indicates that early reservations are wise and prices should remain constant. Although, at this point, July is slightly under-performing in comparison to 2011. This will be a trend to keep an eye on.

Seaside Report: Bookings - January 2012

Seaside Report: Bookings - YoY Variance - January 2012

Outer Banks Beach, Surf, & Fishing Report – 8.29.11 – Hurricane Irene Recap

Posted on August 29, 2011

Outer Banks: Hurricane Irene

Good morning. Here’s the Outer Banks Beach, Surf, & Fishing Report for Monday, August 29, 2011.

This video was shot at the Lillian St. beach access in Kitty Hawk at 11 AM.

Hurricane Irene sure was a beast! The beginning of the storm was relatively mild, but after the eye passed and the winds switched, it got ugly quick.

For the most part, the beach side fared pretty well, but there was extensive Sound side damage to historic OBX flooding.

The hurricane started late on Friday and lasted through the entire day on Saturday. Easily a 24 hour storm…and violent on the back side. As the storm approached the Outer Banks, it was relatively mild. The winds and rain picked up, but it wasn’t disastrous. We took a ride along the “Beach Road” in the early afternoon, and the most extensive damage we saw was siding and shingles coming off.

By the late afternoon, conditions changed significantly. The winds from the early part of the storm blew hard out of the east, and they blew ALL of the water out of the Sound. At one point I walked 200 – 300 yards out on the Sound passed where the water line is usually. When the eye passed, the winds switched to the west/northwest, conditions worsened quickly on the Sound side. The water levels rose relatively slowly, and then they picked up pace and picked up force! For hours the OBX Sound-side was hammered by incoming water and waves, resulting in extensive property damage. It got ugly quick!

I’ll follow up this video/post with some great, professional images of the destruction.

The good news is that Irene is gone, the cleanup is underway, and we are happy to be welcoming guests back to the Outer Banks.

The weather is great, there’s a little surf leftover, and fish are biting.

Dare County is open to visitors as of today at noon, with the exception of Duck. We are still waiting for an update from Corolla.

We are welcoming guests to our vacation rental homes as of 4 PM check-in today.

It is sad to see the destruction, but it is heartwarming to see the OBX community come together in a time of need, and we are happy to get back to “business as usual” as quickly as possible.

We hope you and your fared well too.

Hope to see you soon. Have fun!

Outer Banks: Hurricane Irene Update – 8.26.11, 5:30 PM – Ms. Irene is on the Way!

Posted on August 26, 2011

8.26.11 - Ms. Irene is on the Way!

Here’s the Outer Banks Hurricane Irene Update as of 5:30 PM on Friday, August 26, 2011.

This video was shot at Jennette’s Pier in Nags Head at 3:00 PM.

Ms. Irene is on the way! Some Irene conditions are starting to show up; clouds, wind, and waves are starting to arrive.

The good news for the day is that Irene’s eye wall has broken down. The hurricane has been downgraded to a Category 2 storm, and with less than 24 hours before it makes landfall, it is unlikely that it will have time to intensify.

It seems that Hurricane Irene will land on the Outer Banks as a Category 2, and as it bounces up the East Coast, it should downgrade to a Category 1 pretty quickly. There is still strong potential for significant impact on the OBX, but this is much better than yesterday’s predictions of Category 3 or 4.

There is a mandatory evacuation for the entire Outer Banks. Dare and Currituck counties are requiring that guests and residents evacuate. As a result, it is pretty quite on the OBX.

Our family has decided to stick around to hold the fort down, so over the next few days, I’ll do my best to give updates as I can…while being safe of course.

After the quick report, I traveled up the “Beach Road” to capture some “before” shots. I had a professional photographer with me, so I’ll get a great slide show of “before” images out to you ASAP.

I wish you and yours the best wherever you are. Please stay safe, and please continue to send good vibes to the OBX. Hopefully Irene is gentle.

Please stay tuned for updates as much as I can.

See you soon!

Seaside Vacations
OuterBanksVacations.com
Blog.OuterBanksVacations.com
Facebook.com/SeasideVacationsOBX

Outer Banks: Hurricane Irene Update – 8.24.11, 9:00 PM

Posted on August 24, 2011

Hurricane Irene Projected Path - 8.24.11 - 9 PM

It sure is gorgeous on the Outer Banks right now. Perfect end of summer beach weather.

Unfortunately, that could all change very soon. Hurricanes tend to be pretty erratic. Their path can change drastically, and computer models tend to have a wide range of error. However, as the storm draws closer, the models get stronger, and Hurricane Irene is getting pretty consistent.

At this point, Hurricane Irene is a category 3 hurricane, and the projected path brings it to Ocracoke late Saturday night and into Sunday.

However, it’s too early to know for sure. We are starting to implement emergency plans. As of tomorrow (Thursday, 8.25.11) at 8:00 AM, all Dare County guests are required to evacuate.

From Dare County:

The Dare County Control Group has ordered a mandatory evacuation for all visitors throughout all of Dare County effective 8:00 a.m., Thursday, August 25.

All visitors are urged to make preparations and leave the area. Dare County Emergency Management urges visitors to take all personal belongings with them during evacuation. Other preparation steps are available at www.ReadyNC.org and www.darenc.com

Although the mandatory evacuation order is for all Dare County visitors, residents are advised to take proper precautions and make general storm preparations. This effort should include securing all loose items outdoors. Monitor local news outlets for further advisories from the National Weather Service and state and local emergency management officials.

The Dare County Control Group will meet again on Thursday, August 25 after the 5:00 p.m. storm advisory has been issued by the National Hurricane Center. Further evacuations should be anticipated as Irene moves closer to the Outer Banks.

At this time there are no new reentry stickers being issued. The previously issued stickers, for 2008/2009, are still valid. Residents can also use a North Carolina driver’s license showing a Dare County address. Property owners may use a Dare County tax bill with proper identification for reentry.

Updates and bulletins will be issued on an as needed basis and will be available on www.darenc.com and Government Access Channel 20.

From The Weather Channel:
Hurricane Irene, a large, powerful Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, continues to plow through the Bahamas, with more impacts in its sights.

As you can see on our projected path map above, Hurricane Irene will track towards the East Coast this weekend. It is still too early to determine the exact path and the potential impact to the Outer Banks.

Outer Banks Surf Update 2.15.11

Posted on February 15, 2011

Matt Lusk - Hurricane Earl Outer Banks Surf

We’ve hit the tail end of February. Spring is right around the corner…possibly early if you believe that furry prognosticator Phil. The birds are starting to chirp and the OBX weather is starting to warm up. I hear it could be 70 degrees by the end of the week?!

For any of the hardcore Outer Banks surf enthusiasts that brave the frigid elements to surf through the winter, keep on keep’n on (Ah hem, I’ll include myself in this category this year…every year is different depending on one’s motivational level.). For all of those fair weather fans, time to start dusting off the board…and your wetsuit…the water will still be chilly for a while. To help with your level of motivation, here’s a quick update on the OBX surf scene.

1. ESPN ran a great segment titled “Characters of the Outer Banks” that does an amazing job touching on all of the aspects of the Outer Banks surf world…professional riders, free riders, filmmakers, photographers, shapers, living legends. The OBX has them all, and ESPN offers a great gallery of pictures and overviews of the characters that add so much character to OBX surfing.

2. Last year (2010) a relatively unknown kid from the OBX stormed into Hawaii and nailed a perfect 10 at the Volcom Pipeline Pro. And Brett Barley’s star was born. Brett returned to Pipe this year, but he, and his board, didn’t fare so well. But at the end of the day, he’s surfing in Hawaii while the OBX has 39 degree water temps, so we can’t really feel bad for him. Below is a quick video of Brett’s highlights and his explanation of his demolished board.

3. Let’s stay on the topic of Mr. Barley. Matt Lusk (fab local surf photog…also covered in the Outer Banks Characters link above) just reported on his blog that he and Brett scored the cover of the magazine Local Sessions for the Feb/March issue. Congrats on another cover Matt, and a huge thumbs up to Brett for his fist cover! How could this be Brett’s first cover?! Brett, get in front of that lens dude. The issue also includes a “Behind the Lens” interview with Matt.

Matt Lusk, Bett Barley - Local Sessions

4. To round out the Outer Banks Surf Update, let’s see what local surf pro Jesse Hines is up to. Ah, a road trip. In the biggest sense of the term road trip…half way around the world to New Zeland. Surfer Magazine recently uploaded a video titled “Restless Road 2” that highlights a recent surf trip Jesse took with Mike Losness and Peter Devries. The website doesn’t offer much intro to the video, but I can tell you it offers a surfers view of some amazing landscape and even better waves. Well worth the watch. You can find the video here.

4A. But traveling around the world isn’t enough for Mr. Hines. Somehow Jesse also finds time for a fledgling music career. The Wave, a newspaper out of Delaware, recently caught up with Jesse while he was on the road promoting his new CD ”In the Right Time.” You can find Jesse music on his MySpace page.

Hurricane Earl Approaches the Outer Banks. Evacuations in Effect.

Posted on September 2, 2010

Hurricane Earl – Updated Thursday, 9/2, 10:00 AM

As Hurricane Earl heads northwest through the Atlantic, officials are unsure of its impact on the Outer Banks.

The latest reports project Earl nearing the Outer Banks late Thursday/early Friday – passing about 70 miles off the coast. This would bring high winds, possibly hurricane force winds, heavy rain, beach erosion and moderate sound side flooding. Weather conditions will deteriorate this evening as the storm approaches.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for all of Dare County and the North Carolina Coast from north of Surf City to Virginia, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A hurricane warning indicates that sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher are expected in 24 hours or less. Warnings can remain in effect when dangerously high water or waves exist even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

The Dare County Control Group has issued a mandatory evacuation for all visitors throughout the entire County effective 6:00 am Thursday, September 2.

Hurricane Earl Track 9.2.10

Dare County Emergency Management is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Earl and urges all residents and visitors to take necessary precautions for possible hurricane force winds as the storm is expected to pass approximately 80 miles off the Outer Banks early Friday morning. Bulletins will be issued as needed and available at www.darenc.com.

Dare County Emergency Management Bulletins

Earl Links: Public Advisory | Forecast | Tracking

Other Popular Weather Resources

Current Weather Conditions

Hurricane Earl on the Way to the Outer Banks? 9.1.10 – 10:30AM

Posted on September 1, 2010

Current Storm Activities

Hurricane Earl – Updated Wednesday, 9/1, 10:30AM

As Hurricane Earl heads northwest through the Atlantic, officials are unsure of its impact on the Outer Banks.

The latest reports project Earl nearing the Outer Banks late Thursday/early Friday – passing about 80 miles off the coast. This would bring high winds, possibly hurricane force winds, heavy rain, beach erosion and moderate sound side flooding.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of Dare County and the North Carolina Coast from north of Surf City to Virginia, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the next 36 hours.

Hurricane Earl Forecast 9.1.10

Dare County Emergency Management Bulletins

Earl Links: Public Advisory | Forecast | Tracking

Other Popular Weather Resources

Current Weather Conditions

Waves from Hurricane Bill Starting to Arrive on the Outer Banks

Posted on August 21, 2009

Hurricane Bill 8.21.09 002 Hurricane Bill 8.21.09 003

Surf is up on the Outer Banks. Swell from Hurricane Bill is starting to arrive this morning, and the intensity of the surf will increase through Sunday when it is forecasted to peak somewhere in the neighborhood of 16 foot waves!

OBX Wave Forecast 8.21.09

This morning the waves are about shoulder high and pretty consistent; some beautiful lines are forming on the OBX. Air temps will be in the 90’s over the next few days, and water temps in the low 70’s. The currents are already gaining strength. Please use caution in the water, and review rip current preparedness.

Rip Current

Hurricane Bill is becoming somewhat disorganized, but still a major hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 115mph making it a Category 3 storm. Bill is moving northwest at about 17 mph and is expected to move gradually to a north-northwest path later Friday. Bill’s center is currently about 425 miles south of Bermuda and about 865 southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and the center is expected to pass between Bermuda and the Outer Banks Saturday.

Hurricane Bill 8.21.09